Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has once again predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028. Speaking at the Token2049 event in Dubai, Hayes delivered a strong pro-crypto message, declaring, “It’s time to go long everything,” referring to both cryptocurrencies and equities.
Hayes Links Future Bitcoin Surge to Liquidity and Macro Uncertainty
Hayes based his prediction on expectations of increased liquidity in global markets, especially in the U.S. He argued that the Federal Reserve would eventually resort to measures similar to quantitative easing—injecting more capital into the financial system to stabilize markets. He drew a comparison to Q3 2022, when fears around inflation, high interest rates, and the looming FTX collapse spooked investors.
Back then, the Federal Reserve added approximately $2.5 trillion through its repo program, a liquidity move that supported asset prices. Hayes believes a similar environment is forming now.
The current backdrop includes rising concerns about global trade due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. Although the initial announcement caused a dip in global markets, the 90-day pause brought temporary relief. Hayes suggested that this uncertain environment, along with a Fed unlikely to cooperate under a Trump administration, could ultimately force hedge funds and other market players to inject liquidity into the system by purchasing U.S. Treasuries.
This liquidity, Hayes said, would flow into alternative assets like Bitcoin, pushing its price upward.
Hayes isn’t alone in his optimism. In the most bullish scenario, Investment firm ARK Invest also sees Bitcoin reaching $2.4 million by 2030, up from its previous forecast of $1.5 million. The base case is now $1.2 million, and even the bear case has been revised upward to $500,000.
BTC Exchange Reserves Hit Six-Year Low
On-chain data further strengthens these bullish arguments. Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level since November 2018.
Exchange reserves refer to the amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges. When these reserves fall, it means investors are withdrawing their coins from exchanges into private wallets. This behavior typically indicates a long-term holding strategy, as traders who move their assets off exchanges usually intend to store them securely rather than sell them.
This reduction in available supply on exchanges reduces selling pressure, which can support price increases. It also reflects growing confidence among investors who expect Bitcoin’s value to rise in the future.
One of the main reasons for the shrinking exchange reserves is the aggressive accumulation by large institutions.
MicroStrategy, the largest public Bitcoin holder, now owns over 214,000 BTC and continues to buy more. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other asset managers have also entered the market through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched earlier this year. These ETFs require the physical purchase of Bitcoin, which further reduces circulating supply.
As these institutions accumulate, they remove coins from the open market, contributing to the drop in exchange-held Bitcoin. This institutional interest, combined with reduced supply and increased global liquidity expectations, creates a setup that many analysts believe could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
